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Today is December 1st and 2024 is coming to an end and today I'm going to spend a bit of time to talk about the dollar in particularly the dollar index. And over the last week or so we have seen the dollar ease back from a two month high after the market has rallied from the September 27th low of 99.92 to the November 27th high of 107.99. And in all the market has actually rallied something like 8.08% basis.
The December Dollar Index futures. This week's pullback in the dollar is evident following the release of the Chicago PMI reports as well as the US Q3 GDP reports. And of course it is also not helped by the declining treasury yields that we also see in accompanying the dollar decline. However, will the dollar continue to ease back in the coming week?
For this we will refer to the chart. Now what you have in front of you here is the December Mini Dollar Index Futures traded out of the Intercontinental exchange of ICE and we can see that the low year is at 99.92 which was exactly September 27th. And we have a three wave rally all the way to 107.99,which ended on November 27th. And we can see that this three wave rally is actually almost textbook because we have a hundred percent equality move towards this level at 107.83. We have a marginal high at 107.99.
Before the market is back this past week and because the market has already pulled back, that gives rise to the possibility that what we are seeing here is a correction. Within a correction, meaning to say that in the coming week I do expect some kind of a bounce, not so much of a bounce back to 107.99, but anywhere between 106.57 to 107.12. And if we do get a slightly deeper rebound to 107.99, so long as it doesn't break 107.99, I think it is still possible for the market to come back in a pullback, possibly targeting 104.28. And ideally we want to see price go down a little bit deeper into 103.33 to 104.10. That will be perfect because it will give rise to a low risk, high reward trade set up on the buy side for another rally.
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