Good evening. Today is December 15, 2024 and we are merely 17 days away from the end of the year. And today I want to share with you my outlook for the RMB in particularly the offshore dollar versus CNH which is the currency pair that can be freely traded outside of mainland China.
And we all knew Donald Trump's proposal to impose very punitive tariffs on all its trading partners, in particular China, in which he has actually threatened to impose a 60% tariff on top of what is already being imposed. And let's go forward and take a look at the outlook.
What you are seeing in front of you here is the weekly time frame price chart for the spot $ versus CNH which is the RMB traded offshore of China. We can see the last traded price was 7.2798. This is the last traded price on Friday December 13, 2024. And based chart we can see that the dollar is basically very bullish relative to the RMB. In fact the dollar has been bullish across the board against many many currencies and the Chinese RMB is just one of them. So you can see that the dollar is basically have a bullish bias.
And the market has traded to a high of 7.3750 before being sold back down to 6.6975 and then bought up again to 7.3682. And the market has been trading within this ban between 6.69 to 7.37. So the last traded high was actually this past week on Thursday. We have saw the price of $ versus CNH went up to a high at 7.3149. And this is where we are right now. Where the price is right now there is a counter trend from the high of 7.375.
And this counter trend may actually allow some short term trading opportunity to do counter trend. Although the dominant trend is up, there is opportun to trade a low risk high reward trade setup by trading counter trend within the price range of 7.28 to 7.375. Okay, so this is the weekly time frame.
Now let's take a look at the daily time frame. Now daily time frame is also in conformity to the bias in the weekly time frame. You can see that the bias in the dollar CNH in the daily time frame started from 6.9713 all the way to 7.31. And the market right now has a counter trend represented by this pink color box. If the markets can go even higher to let's say 7.30 for example, that may actually present a short term counter trend trading opportunity. Basically what we want to do is to sell the dollar versus CNH within this bracket of price between 7.3 to 7.315 and then we will take our chance with a target at about 7.20. So this is a very short term trade based on a counter trend trade setup.
Now when we go down to the futures contract traded out of Singapore Exchange, there's a product called the mini dollar CNH futures traded out of Singapore Exchange. This is the futures contract and this is of course basis the December contract. So we can see that in the four hours time frame, anytime the market goes into 7.355 to 7.37, there is the possibility of doing a counter trend, basically selling the dollar for rmb. So this is my outlook. I think there is the possibility of a counter trend trade setup coming up. And of course, if the price do go down......
Watch the full video to learn more.
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