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【EP1】 India Stock Market Rally to Record High: Still a Chance?

 

As you know, the Nifty 50 index, a benchmark for the Indian equity market, and the Rupee-USD currency pair are two pivotal instruments that offer a gateway to the vibrant Indian economy. 
 
This webinar is designed to equip you with the knowledge and strategies necessary to navigate these markets effectively. During this engaging session, our speaker will delve into both the fundamentals and the technical analysis of the Nifty 50 futures, providing you with insights into the factors that drive this influential index. Furthermore, our speaker will shed light on the Rupee-USD futures market, a crucial tool for managing currency risk and capitalizing on exchange rate fluctuations. 
 
Whether you're an experienced investor or new to the Indian market, this webinar promises to be an invaluable resource. Join us as we unravel the complexities of these markets and equip you with the knowledge to seize emerging opportunities in the dynamic Indian financial landscape.
 
Speaker: Daniel Ang (Sophisticated Trader with 30 yrs exp)
 
Subtitle:
 
Now we want to get into the main thing is which is the GDP India is just marginally below $4 trillion. And at the rate India is growing uh especially over the last few years we can see that India is coming hot, on the heel of Japan and this is something that we have to watch. Because this year India has officially overtaken the United Kingdom as the fifth largest economy and it is basically coming uh for Japan. So we can see India is definitely a growing economy and uh it's we all knew that India right now uh has already surpassed China as the largest uh economy uh country in the world, being in term of population size and uh this is going to uh allow India to actually Reap.
 
The dividends of its young population, because you know in any kind of economies, uh not only as consumers but also as a measurement of their Workforce. A young economy definitely will be able to catch up to the rest of the world now. When we look at the internal structure of India going back to 2013, you can see that the Indian economy has been averaging very very good above 5% and that only took a dip in 2020 we all knew what happened in 2020.
 
Can see that the following years India economy goes into a tear spin and it actually register a negative 5.8% but it bounced back very very fast. We can see before pandemic uh, India GDP on the uh on the yearly basis, on annualized basis has been growing at a very fast clip. Now this reminds me of China right after they enter the WTO, and we can see that China also progresses very very very fast. It basically tripled the uh the size of the economy so it looks like India is uh replicating what China is doing based on their GDP growth. And we can see um the rebound from the pandemic, itself has been very robust uh.
 
It registered a high of 99.7% in the hold of 2022 and of this year we are only in uh we're not even at the end of Q2. We're almost at the end of Q2 at the end of this week itself and already Indian uh GDP based on the data that we see is slly to register an annualize growth rate of 88.2%, assuming the the the second half of the year is just as good. So if momentum maintains at the current level, there's a very good chance that India may actually register 8.2%, which is very very good and see based on the growth rate uh between India and China. You can see India has a lot of potential and of course this has got everything to do with geopolitics and the trade war between the collective West and China. So there is having a negative impact on China, where I think India is taking the opportunity to do a lot of catchup, because there's a lot of what you call it uh the risking going on. There's a lot of companies they are moving out of China either for political reason or or other factors they are shifting to other markets and India is a major recipient of this inflow of what we call the FDI. The uh uh the foreign direct Investments over here, we can see the major contributing uh uh sectors to the Indian GDP growth you can see the large one the the outliner here is construction. And construction means infrastructure, so India from that perspective has a lot to build because unlike China China has been growing phenomenally uh due to infrastructure building. And India by comparison, you know it's coming from a very very low base, can see by extension the rail system is still very much on steam engine.
 
And uh we can see that the uh uh the ports buildings are not as advanced as those in China and the others part of Southeast Asia now. The other one that will continue to grow will be manufacturing as uh countries are shifting their base to India for manufacturing whether it is to build microchips or whether it is to build uh uh Tech equipments. Okay, we can see that there's a lot of Western uh tech companies are beginning to set up their presence in India and this is actually going to uh work into the manufacturing. Now the other one that is also very prominent is agriculture. we all know that India is very much a agricultural economy and most of their production is still based on uh domestic production of food okay so that will remain to be seen uh will remain to be prom now.
 
The other one that we that also stand out is public administration, meaning you say that the size of the Indian government is actually growing and uh I wouldn't see as a good thing. Because if the size of the government continue to expand at the expense of the other critical factors, it may actually be a drag a good example would be United States. The the the portion of public administration, say that the portion of the size of the government relative to the overall GDP for America is actually very big and is growing.
 
 
 
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