And this is the long term look of the Nifty 50, which is the indian equity markets. Now, this goes back all the way to 2007. And this is important because this is the period where we have the global financial crisis. Now, when we look back into those days, that period where the market was so stressed during the global financial crisis as a result of the subprime crisis in the states, now, when we look back, it's only a little blip, okay? Now, even after the pandemic, there was this major sell off during the early part of pandemic which last only one month. And then the market has now looked at it. It was under 10.000. Now, you can see the index here is actually growing very fast. This is definitely a bull market in any kind of way. You look at the market, this market is definitely in the bullish phase. So this is the result. This is based on the daily Timeframe and this is up to this afternoon.
You can see that the market have a big sell off. And this was the result of the election. Market wasn't expecting Modi to lose so much seat. Okay. Going into the election, you can see market was actually at all time high. And when the result came in that he only secured 272 seats, the market sell off in one single day. Okay? One single day. It dropped all the way to 21,000 from 23,000. So he dropped more than 2000 points in one day. And based on this chart, you can see, this chart is, the way I look at it is that I need to find directional bias. There was a brief moment. The market actually went into a very deep retracement.
Technically speaking, this is where I will be buying. Because when the market is in a bull market like this, I will not be able to chase because this system that I have or I'm using doesn't allow me to chase the market. I only buy on pullback. And this pullback happened so fast. On one day, it actually went into what we call a VDR. I call that a very deep retracement. If we don't buy here, we don't have a chance. As we can see right now, as of this afternoon, the price is back to just under 24,000. And this will continue to edge higher. My target right now, projected target is just under 24,800 points. So we still have another 1000 points more to go before the market hit its projected target. And it may not even stop there. Okay, so this is how bullish the indian market is right now.
Of course, anything can change if the US decided to do something on their monetary power Fund monetary policy policy front, especially if the Federal Reserve cut rates, this will be a rocket Fuel that will take equity markets worldwide into all fresh, all time high. And this will definitely benefit the Nifty 50. However, if the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rate at this current level for extended period of time, it doesn't seem to be affecting equity markets around the world because the market has more or less believed that they are calling the Federal Reserve bluff, meaning that they are very confident at some point the Fed will have to cut rates. Okay, so this is the current situation in which we are facing right now, but it all seems to be working out very well for the Nifty 50.
Okay, now this is the 4 hours timeframe. Now, obviously, earlier on I did mention in one single day on June 4, the market reacted negatively to the result for the indian election. It went down to 21281 and then rebound. Now this is the futures contract. Okay, so we want to see how this market actually react. Reacted. The target remain the same at 24,800 there abouts. And we can see this, as of this afternoon, the market have a new high at 23,842.9. Okay, so again, very, very bullish. Will I buy at this current level? No, I can't buy. But of course, if you can go down to a lower time frame, you can actually find levels of scalp, but always scalp within the green color bar area. If I want to buy, I must buy within this green color area. Prices has already left. So technically speaking, based on how I trade normally, I will not be chasing. Okay, so if you want to chase, you have to have a system in which you can manage the risk.
Okay, so this is the other thing that we'll be talking today, which is the indian rupee. So this is the convention. The dollar is worth $1. How many rupee do you need to exchange For the same $1? So dollar over here in this currency, pair of the $1 remains constant. That left side of the currency, the base currency, will not change. What changes is the currency, what is called the quoted currency. In this case, the currency on the right. Okay, so it is this currency that is actually moving. This one will stay constant at one. So we can see that this is the conventional way of quoting dollar versus the indian rupee, and it has been going higher. Meaning, say that the dollar is gaining ground against the rupee. Or conversely speaking, we are saying that the indian rupee is losing ground relative to the dollar.
Okay, so this is the conventional way of looking at it. Last I checked, this market is at 83.5466 rupee exchange for $1. So it means, they say, that the dollar continues to be strong relative to the rupee, and this has been the case year to date. The dollar has gained less than 0.5% against the indian rupee. So it is not that bad because other currency has performed worse. But still, we can see the trajectory is showing us that the dollar, over time, is going to consistently stay positive. Because this one goes all the way back to 2003. You can see that the trajectory doesn't seem to be wanting to change anytime soon......
Watch the video to learn more.
立即開戶
網頁咨詢
QQ
Whatsapp
